Technology Hobbiests Reality vs Fantasy | ZDNet.com
This is an overwrought article on technology enthusiasts demise. I don't believe the high end market is going to evaporate, but like everyone right now, even the geeks have to get more practical about their expenditures.
The enthusiast market has always been an important one, but vastly over rated. True geeks are about 3% of the market. They supported bleeding edge research and encouraged companies to push the envelope in development of new products. But they also encouraged a warped perspective of what effective technology was. We were often led around by the nose by these technologists. Afraid to seem unsophisticated we bought really questionable technology, because we thought we needed to. We couldn't explain why we needed it, but we needed it.
I remember one stunning time in the late '90's when Bluetooth technology was promoted as a life changing technology that was going to be ubiquitous, automate and interface with ever single machine in our lives. I couldn't see how low power, short range radio was a revolutionary technology. Manufacturers had been using their own proprietary technologies for years. I know the standardization was the key, but even today the effect of Bluetooth technology of human life is negligible. Headsets and a few keyboard/mouse products. Big deal. Few if any refrigerators talking to air conditioners, talking to garage doors talking to toilets.
It's not that Bluetooth isn't useful. It's just the breathless reporting about revolutionizing humanity that gets a little weird. Then you have all the cell phone buyers running around buying new cell phones, just to get Bluetooth without having a clue what Bluetooth even is. Good for the technology companies sales reports, but maybe not for the consumers. Sure they should be better informed, but eventually they wise up.
Another segment of the business world that is lamenting the good old days are the technology journalists. Partnering with the technology companies and the PR mavens, they became expert at manipulating public opinion and creating white hot frothy demand for glitzy but mediocre products. They're wondering how they are going to do with with what they view as pedestrian products that actually provide value for consumers. A true test of journalistic excellence.
So now we find ourselves post Bubble II, with the economy temporarily stalled in the fast lane. Consumers are having to carefully consider all expenditures before parting with their money. Companies have to find a way to communicate real value to very skeptical prospects. Sure it's not as much fun, but it's the real world. Like life on the African plains, those tech companies (and journalists) left standing will be truly tested with products of proven value in the real world. That's a good thing.
Dr Dave's unique perspective on our culture, politics, business, history and economics.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2009
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